Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bansko vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
2 – 1
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
11/3/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bansko52%
×Draw23%
Slavia Sofia II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.81
Slavia Sofia II
1.16

Bansko creates 56% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
76%
Bansko or Slavia Sofia II
77%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
48%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
29%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
84%
Bansko 2+ goals
54%
Bansko 3+ goals
27%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
32%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
68%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.81

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bansko scores more
52%
level
23%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
24%

Bansko at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko 2 – 1 Slavia Sofia II

Bansko beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.