Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bansko vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
1 – 1
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
3/30/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 24Stadion Sveti Petar (Bansko)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Bansko42%
×Draw25%
Chavdar Etropole33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.48
Chavdar Etropole
1.27

Bansko creates 17% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
67%
Bansko or Chavdar Etropole
75%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
58%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
20%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
77%
Bansko 2+ goals
43%
Bansko 3+ goals
19%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
72%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
36%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
56%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bansko scores more
42%
level
25%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
33%

Bansko at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bansko 1 – 1 Chavdar Etropole

Bansko and Chavdar Etropole drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar (Bansko).