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Baník Souš vs Sokol Zápy — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Baník Souš
Baník Souš
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
11/4/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 14Fotbalový stadion Josefa Masopusta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Baník Souš42%
×Draw26%
Sokol Zápy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Souš
1.40
Sokol Zápy
1.20

Baník Souš creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baník Souš
1.61
Sokol Zápy
1.37

allows per match

Baník Souš
1.03
Sokol Zápy
1.18

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par
Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Sokol Zápy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw
68%
Baník Souš or Sokol Zápy
74%
Draw or Sokol Zápy
58%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+
20%
Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals
75%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
41%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
17%
Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
34%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)
56%
Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 1.61 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Baník Souš defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baník Souš scores more
42%
level
26%
Sokol Zápy scores more
32%

Baník Souš at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Souš vs Sokol Zápy

Baník Souš and Sokol Zápy drew 2-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Josefa Masopusta in Most.