Baník Ostrava vs U Craiova 1948

Baník Ostrava

Canc

14:00

U Craiova 1948

1/14/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Baník Ostrava48%

×Draw22%

U Craiova 194830%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.50

Baník Ostrava

1.95

U Craiova 1948

1.50

Baník Ostrava creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.89

creates per match

2.33

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.89

U Craiova 1948

2.33

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

0.67

U Craiova 1948

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

70%

Baník Ostrava or U Craiova 1948

78%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

52%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

27%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

86%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

58%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

31%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

78%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

44%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

62%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.89 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

U Craiova 1948 attack 2.33 + Baník Ostrava defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

48%

level

22%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

30%

Baník Ostrava at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff