Baník Ostrava 2–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Slavia Praha

T. Rigo 29'

D. Buchta 27'

J. Bořil 59'

M. van Buren 45+1'

V. Jurečka 26'

12/17/2023

Czech Liga · Round 19Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Baník Ostrava40%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.50

Baník Ostrava

1.60

Slavia Praha

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

2.15

creates per match

1.62

1.37

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.15

Slavia Praha

1.62

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.37

Slavia Praha

1.05

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.02on par

Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

64%

Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

60%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

20%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

80%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

47%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

22%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

78%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

44%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

53%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.15 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

40%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

36%

Baník Ostrava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

V. Jurečka

Slavia Praha · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

27'

29'

45+1'

59'

65'

D. Douděra← M. van Buren

67'

69'

70'

76'

76'

77'

F. Blažek← Gigli Ndefe

77'

L. Almási← J. Klíma

85'

S. Sinyan← M. Tomič

85'

I. Schranz← P. Ševčík

86'

F. Kaloč← T. Rigo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaníkSlavia

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots23

1.62Expected Goals (xG)1.85

3Corners6

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots23

7On Target9

2Off Target11

4Blocked3

9Inside Box16

4Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

311Total Passes383

209Accurate Passes288

67%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0