Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

M. Jurásek 83', 81'

4/25/2023

Czech Liga · Round 29Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Baník Ostrava42%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.45

Baník Ostrava

1.63

Slavia Praha

1.45

Baník Ostrava creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

2.26

creates per match

1.62

1.27

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.26

Slavia Praha

1.62

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.27

Slavia Praha

1.01

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.06on par

Slavia Praha+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

66%

Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

58%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

21%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

80%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

48%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

22%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

77%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

42%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

55%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.01 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.26 + Slavia Praha defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.63

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

42%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

34%

Baník Ostrava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Jiři Fleisman

34'

Christos Zafeiris

35'

Muhamed Tijani

63'

L. Provod← M. van Buren

69'

M. Jurásek← L. Masopust

70'

M. Šín← J. Klíma

81'

M. Jurásek↳ C. Zafeiris

83'

L. Almási← N. Kuzmanovič

83'

M. Jurásek↳ L. Provod

87'

J. Bořil← D. Douděra

87'

T. Kacharaba← C. Zafeiris

88'

D. Buchta← M. Šín

88'

R. Mišković← E. Šehić

88'

J. Hromada← V. Jurečka

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BaníkSlavia

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots12

4Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target2

2Blocked6

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0