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Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
6/20/2020Czech LigaCzech Liga · Championship Round - 1Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Baník Ostrava40%
×Draw24%
Slavia Praha36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava
1.60
Slavia Praha
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava
2.15
Slavia Praha
1.62

allows per match

Baník Ostrava
1.37
Slavia Praha
1.05

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.02on par
Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw
64%
Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha
76%
Draw or Slavia Praha
60%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
20%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
80%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
47%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
22%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
78%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
44%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
53%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.15 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more
40%
level
24%
Slavia Praha scores more
36%

Baník Ostrava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 3-1 in Czech Liga on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Ostrava.