Baník Ostrava 2–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Praha

P. Stronati 90+7'

J. Svozil 17'

L. Masopust 90+4'

N. Stanciu 14'

6/10/2020

Czech Liga · Round 29Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Baník Ostrava43%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.44

Baník Ostrava

1.65

Slavia Praha

1.44

Baník Ostrava creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

2.26

creates per match

1.61

1.27

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.26

Slavia Praha

1.61

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.27

Slavia Praha

1.03

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.06on par

Slavia Praha+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

66%

Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

57%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

22%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

81%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

49%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

23%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

42%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

56%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.26 + Slavia Praha defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Slavia Praha attack 1.61 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

43%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

34%

Baník Ostrava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

N. Stanciu

17'

J. Svozil

19'

P. Stronati

46'

P. Musa← S. Tecl

46'

P. Hellebrand← L. Masopust

58'

59'

61'

63'

69'

69'

N. Kuzmanovic← R. Hruby

70'

70'

80'

80'

84'

R. Hruby← J. Fleisman

85'

87'

87'

88'

89'

90+1'

90+2'

90+4'

L. Masopust↳ P. Sevcik

90+6'

S. Tecl

90+6'

S. Tecl

90+6'

N. Stanciu← M. Frydrych

90+7'

P. Stronati↳ J. Fleisman

Statistics

BaníkSlavia

Overview

3Corners3

Discipline

6Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Baník Ostrava 2–2 Slavia Praha

Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha drew 2-2 in Czech Liga on June 10, 2020.

Goals: N. Stanciu (14'), J. Svozil (17'), L. Masopust (90+4'), P. Stronati (90+7').

The match was played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Ostrava.

Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Czech Liga: Baník Ostrava 2–2 Slavia Praha