Baník Ostrava U19 vs Hradec Králové U19

Baník Ostrava U19

CANC

08:00

Hradec Králové U19

5/22/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 25Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1957%

×Draw20%

Hradec Králové U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava U19Expected goals in this matchHradec Králové U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.33

Baník Ostrava U19

2.21

Hradec Králové U19

1.33

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 48 away

2.37

creates per match

1.44

1.22

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19

2.37

Hradec Králové U19

1.44

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19

1.22

Hradec Králové U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Hradec Králové U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw

77%

Baník Ostrava U19 or Hradec Králové U19

80%

Draw or Hradec Králové U19

43%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+

35%

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals

89%

Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals

65%

Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals

38%

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals

74%

Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals

38%

Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Hradec Králové U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.44 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Hradec Králové U19 scores more

23%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff