Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baník Ostrava U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
1 – 0
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
10/30/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1954%
×Draw20%
České Budějovice U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.26
České Budějovice U19
1.50

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
75%
Baník Ostrava U19 or České Budějovice U19
80%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
46%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
33%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
89%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
66%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
39%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
78%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
44%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
68%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.26

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
54%
level
20%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
25%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Baník Ostrava U19 1–0 České Budějovice U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat České Budějovice U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.