Baník Ostrava II 2–0 Slovan Rosice: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava II

FT

2 – 0

Slovan Rosice

R. Loksa 79', 48'

9/13/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 6Fotbalové hřiště Markvartovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Baník Ostrava II51%

×Draw24%

Slovan Rosice26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník Ostrava IIExpected goals in this matchSlovan Rosice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.18

Baník Ostrava II

1.75

Slovan Rosice

1.18

Baník Ostrava II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 66 away

2.25

creates per match

1.27

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Baník Ostrava II

2.25

Slovan Rosice

1.27

allows per match

Baník Ostrava II

1.09

Slovan Rosice

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava II+0.00on par

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava II ↓

Slovan Rosice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava II or draw

74%

Baník Ostrava II or Slovan Rosice

76%

Draw or Slovan Rosice

49%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava II wins by 2+

28%

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava II 1+ goals

83%

Baník Ostrava II 2+ goals

52%

Baník Ostrava II 3+ goals

25%

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

69%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

33%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava II (draw refunded)

66%

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava II attack 2.25 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Baník Ostrava II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Baník Ostrava II scores more

51%

level

24%

Slovan Rosice scores more

26%

Baník Ostrava II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Baník Ostrava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Minarcik

46'

T. Zajic← Azevedo

46'

F. Kaloc← R. Loksa

46'

M. Lalkovic← A. Mooc

48'

R. Loksa

72'

79'

R. Loksa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff