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Bangor vs Portadown — League #408 2026

Bangor
Bangor
Preview
14:00
Portadown
Portadown
9/19/2026League #408League #408 · Round 8Clandeboye Park
43%
Bangor
model favours
43%26%31%

Bangor have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bangor43%
×Draw26%
Portadown31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.49
Portadown
1.22

Bangor creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bangor
0.88
Portadown
0.67

allows per match

Bangor
1.76
Portadown
2.11

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Portadown+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Portadown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
69%
Bangor or Portadown
74%
Draw or Portadown
57%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
21%
Portadown wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
77%
Bangor 2+ goals
44%
Bangor 3+ goals
19%
Portadown 1+ goals
70%
Portadown 2+ goals
34%
Portadown 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
58%
Portadown (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Portadown away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 0.88 + Portadown defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

Portadown attack 0.67 + Bangor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bangor scores more
43%
level
26%
Portadown scores more
31%

Bangor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bangor and Portadown have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bangor
WWWLW
Portadown
WLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bangor host Portadown

September 19, 2026: Bangor take on Portadown in League #408. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bangor host Portadown at Clandeboye Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.