Bangor vs Dungannon Swifts — League #408 2026
Bangor have won 3 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Bangor26%Dungannon Swifts49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dungannon Swifts creates 44% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bangor ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bangor at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches
Dungannon Swifts away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bangor attack 0.88 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13
Dungannon Swifts attack 1.50 + Bangor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Dungannon Swifts at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
- 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Bangor and Dungannon Swifts have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Bangor host Dungannon Swifts on Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League #408 2026/2027 season.
Bangor face Dungannon Swifts (League #408)
League #408 returns with Bangor hosting Dungannon Swifts. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Bangor host Dungannon Swifts at Clandeboye Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.