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Bangor vs Coleraine FC — League #408 2026

Bangor
Bangor
Preview
14:00
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
10/3/2026League #408League #408 · Round 10Clandeboye Park
Big match
41%
Coleraine FC
model favours
32%26%41%

Coleraine FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bangor32%
×Draw26%
Coleraine FC41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.19
Coleraine FC
1.38

Coleraine FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bangor
1.25
Coleraine FC
1.14

allows per match

Bangor
1.63
Coleraine FC
1.14

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Coleraine FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Coleraine FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
59%
Bangor or Coleraine FC
74%
Draw or Coleraine FC
68%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
13%
Coleraine FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
70%
Bangor 2+ goals
33%
Bangor 3+ goals
12%
Coleraine FC 1+ goals
75%
Coleraine FC 2+ goals
40%
Coleraine FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
44%
Coleraine FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Coleraine FC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 1.25 + Coleraine FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coleraine FC attack 1.14 + Bangor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bangor scores more
32%
level
26%
Coleraine FC scores more
41%

Coleraine FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Coleraine FC have scored in 12 games running
  • Coleraine FC have won 4 in a row
  • Bangor score first in only 33% of matches
  • Coleraine FC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 67% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When Coleraine FC score first, they win 80% of the time

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bangor
WLWWD
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bangor host Coleraine FC

October 3, 2026: Bangor take on Coleraine FC in League #408. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bangor host Coleraine FC at Clandeboye Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.