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Bangor vs Carrick Rangers — League #408 2026

Bangor
Bangor
Preview
14:00
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
8/29/2026League #408League #408 · Round 4Clandeboye Park
Big match
40%
Carrick Rangers
model favours
34%25%40%

Bangor have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bangor34%
×Draw25%
Carrick Rangers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.46

Carrick Rangers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bangor
0.88
Carrick Rangers
1.17

allows per match

Bangor
1.76
Carrick Rangers
1.79

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Carrick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
60%
Bangor or Carrick Rangers
75%
Draw or Carrick Rangers
66%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
15%
Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
74%
Bangor 2+ goals
38%
Bangor 3+ goals
15%
Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
46%
Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 0.88 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carrick Rangers attack 1.17 + Bangor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bangor scores more
34%
level
25%
Carrick Rangers scores more
40%

Carrick Rangers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Carrick Rangers have won 3 in a row
  • Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 67% over 2.5)
  • 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Carrick Rangers score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Carrick Rangers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bangor
WWWLW
Rangers
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bangor face Carrick Rangers (League #408)

League #408 returns with Bangor hosting Carrick Rangers. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bangor host Carrick Rangers at Clandeboye Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.