Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
Preview
15:30
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
8/9/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 26Gargzdai stadium
Big match
42%
Suduva Marijampole
model favours
31%26%42%

Suduva Marijampole are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Banga31%
×Draw26%
Suduva Marijampole42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.18
Suduva Marijampole
1.42

Suduva Marijampole creates 20% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 125 away

creates per match

Banga
1.10
Suduva Marijampole
1.40

allows per match

Banga
1.44
Suduva Marijampole
1.26

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Banga or draw
58%
Banga or Suduva Marijampole
74%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
69%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
13%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
69%
Banga 2+ goals
33%
Banga 3+ goals
12%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
76%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
41%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
42%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.40 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Banga scores more
31%
level
26%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
42%

Suduva Marijampole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Suduva Marijampole score first in only 20% of matches
  • Banga score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Banga’s matches
  • 70% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Banga 2 vs Suduva Marijampole 3
  • Suduva Marijampole matches are rarely goalless — only 4% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Banga
LWW
Marijampole
WD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole — Match Preview

Banga face Suduva Marijampole on August 9, 2026 in this A Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Banga host Suduva Marijampole at Gargzdai stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.