Banga 0–1 Šiauliai: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Banga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Šiauliai

S. Olberkis 39'

4/28/2024

A Lyga · Round 11Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Banga37%

×Draw27%

Šiauliai36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchŠiauliai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.28

Banga

1.29

Šiauliai

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 85 away

1.10

creates per match

1.12

1.44

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Banga

1.10

Šiauliai

1.12

allows per match

Banga

1.44

Šiauliai

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Šiauliai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Banga or draw

64%

Banga or Šiauliai

73%

Draw or Šiauliai

63%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

16%

Šiauliai wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

72%

Banga 2+ goals

37%

Banga 3+ goals

14%

Šiauliai 1+ goals

72%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

37%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

50%

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Šiauliai defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Šiauliai attack 1.12 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Banga scores more

37%

level

27%

Šiauliai scores more

36%

Banga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

V. Piliukaitis

22'

V. Magdusauskas

39'

S. Olberkis

56'

Carlos Eduardo

58'

V. Magdusauskas

58'

V. Magdusauskas

65'

N. Petkevičius← A. Klimavičius

70'

E. Vaitkūnas← Gabrielius Micevičius

70'

S. Urbys← D. Dovydaitis

81'

J. Januševskij← P. Srebalius

81'

K. Shults← V. Piliukaitis

83'

S. Paulius← K. Žebrauskas

89'

S. Urbys

90+1'

M. Andrejev← D. Norvilas

90+1'

R. Vėževičius← Lara

Banga

Šiauliai

1

Paukštė

23

Baravykas

4

⚽

80

5

33

14

▼

Žebrauska

29

▼

Dovydaiti

31

▼

Micevičiu

10

Ikaunieks

9

▼

55

5

13

4

▼

Lara

7

▼

Norvilas

31

Eduardo

23

▼

Piliukait

79

Paulauska

18

▼

Srebalius

10

Magdušaus

49

Cesinha

Manager: David Afonso

81'▲J. Januševskij←▼P. Srebalius

81'▲K. Shults←▼V. Piliukaitis

90+1'▲M. Andrejev←▼D. Norvilas

90+1'▲R. Vėževičius←▼Lara

Banga substitutes

15Januševskij24Shults17Andrejev32Vėževičius1Smilingis12Grinkevičius14Kirjanov19Antužis98Paštukas20Toleikis57Ambrazaitis

Manager: M. Čepas

65'▲N. Petkevičius←▼A. Klimavičius

70'▲E. Vaitkūnas←▼Gabrielius Micevičius

70'▲S. Urbys←▼D. Dovydaitis

83'▲S. Paulius←▼K. Žebrauskas

Šiauliai substitutes

28Petkevičius8Vaitkūnas20Urbys19Paulius7Petravičius12Linkevičius61Baliutavičius

A Lyga: Banga 0–1 Šiauliai

Šiauliai beat Banga 1-0 in A Lyga on April 28, 2024.

Goals: S. Olberkis (39').

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.

Banga vs Šiauliai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Banga 0–1 Šiauliai