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Banga vs Šiauliai — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
1 – 0
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
3/30/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 2Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga44%
×Draw23%
Šiauliai33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.76
Šiauliai
1.50

Banga creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

Banga
2.35
Šiauliai
2.20

allows per match

Banga
0.80
Šiauliai
1.17

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Banga or draw
67%
Banga or Šiauliai
77%
Draw or Šiauliai
56%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
23%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
83%
Banga 2+ goals
52%
Banga 3+ goals
26%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
78%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
44%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
57%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Šiauliai defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.76

Šiauliai attack 2.20 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Banga scores more
44%
level
23%
Šiauliai scores more
33%

Banga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Banga 1–0 Šiauliai

Banga beat Šiauliai 1-0 in 1 Lyga on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai).