Banga vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026
Banga are unbeaten in 5 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 110+ matches
Banga22%FK Zalgiris Vilnius53%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 69% more chances
Season form · 110 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Banga ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Banga at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches
FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Banga attack 1.09 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98
FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + Banga defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 in a row
- Banga score first in only 27% of matches
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 29% of matches
- Both teams score in only 27% of Banga’s matches
- 68% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- 31% of FK Zalgiris Vilnius’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Banga host FK Zalgiris Vilnius on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 12:15. The match is part of the A Lyga 2026/2027 season.
Banga face FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)
A Lyga returns with Banga hosting FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Banga host FK Zalgiris Vilnius at Gargzdai stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.