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Banga vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
Preview
11:15
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
9/19/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 32Gargzdai stadium
Big match
39%
Banga
model favours
39%27%34%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Banga39%
×Draw27%
Džiugas Telšiai34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.31
Džiugas Telšiai
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 100 away

creates per match

Banga
1.10
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

allows per match

Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.52

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Banga or draw
66%
Banga or Džiugas Telšiai
73%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
61%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
17%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
73%
Banga 2+ goals
38%
Banga 3+ goals
14%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
70%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
34%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
53%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Banga scores more
39%
level
27%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
34%

Banga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Banga score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Banga’s matches
  • 70% of Banga’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Banga 2 vs Džiugas Telšiai 4
  • 37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Banga
LWW
Telšiai
WDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Banga host Džiugas Telšiai

September 19, 2026: Banga take on Džiugas Telšiai in A Lyga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Banga host Džiugas Telšiai at Gargzdai stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.