Banga 0–1 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Banga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Džiugas Telšiai

M. Burba 82'

7/14/2023

A Lyga · Round 22Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Banga39%

×Draw27%

Džiugas Telšiai34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BangaExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.22

Banga

1.31

Džiugas Telšiai

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 100 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.44

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Banga

1.10

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Banga

1.44

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Banga or draw

66%

Banga or Džiugas Telšiai

73%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

61%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+

17%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals

73%

Banga 2+ goals

38%

Banga 3+ goals

14%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

70%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

34%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)

53%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 1.10 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Banga defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Banga scores more

39%

level

27%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

34%

Banga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

D. Norvilas

55'

J. Janusevskis

67'

Goncalo Vieira

67'

D. Kubilinskas← D. Šluta

73'

R. Sveikauskas

74'

Zé Eduardo← Gonçalo Vieira

74'

V. Paulauskas← V. Piliukaitis

77'

I. Venckus← Cesinha

79'

V. Hänninen← Nuno Pereira

80'

82'

82'

85'

90+1'

90'

A. Krivokapić← Vinícius Ribeiro

Banga

Džiugas

94

62

20

36

15

33

18

27

▼

Šluta

8

▼

Pereira

24

⚽

Burba

11

▼

55

33

2

24

5

▼

19

7

14

10

▼

Piliukait

49

▼

Cesinha

9

Laukžemis

Manager: David Afonso

74'▲Zé Eduardo←▼Gonçalo Vieira

74'▲V. Paulauskas←▼V. Piliukaitis

77'▲I. Venckus←▼Cesinha

Banga substitutes

23Eduardo79Paulauskas77Venckus1Smilingis8Andrejev27Urbys22Petrikas88Smulkys20Toleikis

Manager: João Prates

67'▲D. Kubilinskas←▼D. Šluta

79'▲V. Hänninen←▼Nuno Pereira

90'▲A. Krivokapić←▼Vinícius Ribeiro

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

51Kubilinskas19Hänninen88Krivokapić1Paukštė9Lubas13Rapalavičius23Jankauskas77Stulga