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Banga vs Džiugas Telšiai — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
0 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
D. Arlauskis 7'
8/19/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 20Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga49%
×Draw24%
Džiugas Telšiai28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.71
Džiugas Telšiai
1.23

Banga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

creates per match

Banga
2.35
Džiugas Telšiai
1.67

allows per match

Banga
0.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.07

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Banga or draw
72%
Banga or Džiugas Telšiai
76%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
51%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
26%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
82%
Banga 2+ goals
51%
Banga 3+ goals
24%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
71%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
35%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
64%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Banga scores more
49%
level
24%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
28%

Banga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
D. Arlauskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banga vs Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Banga 1-0 in 1 Lyga on August 19, 2019.

Goals: D. Arlauskis (7').

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai).