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Banga vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
0 – 1
Dainava
Dainava
L. J. Caracas Balanta 33'
7/3/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 15Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Banga51%
×Draw24%
Dainava26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
1.74
Dainava
1.17

Banga creates 49% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Banga
2.35
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Banga
0.80
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Banga or draw
74%
Banga or Dainava
76%
Draw or Dainava
49%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
28%
Dainava wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
82%
Banga 2+ goals
52%
Banga 3+ goals
25%
Dainava 1+ goals
69%
Dainava 2+ goals
33%
Dainava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
66%
Dainava (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.35 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dainava attack 1.53 + Banga defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Banga scores more
51%
level
24%
Dainava scores more
26%

Banga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
L. J. Caracas Balanta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Banga 0 – 1 Dainava

Dainava beat Banga 1-0 in 1 Lyga on July 3, 2019.

Goals: L. J. Caracas Balanta (33').

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas (Gargždai).