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Bandeirante U20 vs XV de Piracicaba U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
Preview
18:00
XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
38%
XV de Piracicaba U20
model favours
36%26%38%

Bandeirante U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bandeirante U2036%
×Draw26%
XV de Piracicaba U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandeirante U20
1.34
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bandeirante U20
1.33
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.25

allows per match

Bandeirante U20
1.53
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.35

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par
XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw
62%
Bandeirante U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20
74%
Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20
64%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
16%
XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
74%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
39%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
15%
XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
75%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
40%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
48%
XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.33 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more
36%
level
26%
XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
38%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • XV de Piracicaba U20 score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of XV de Piracicaba U20’s matches
  • Bandeirante U20 sit 24, XV de Piracicaba U20 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDLLL
U20
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bandeirante U20 face XV de Piracicaba U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Bandeirante U20 hosting XV de Piracicaba U20. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.