Bandeirante U20 vs Novorizontino U20

Bandeirante U20

Preview

18:00

Novorizontino U20

7/17/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 7

39%

Novorizontino U20

model favours

33%28%39%

Novorizontino U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bandeirante U2033%

×Draw28%

Novorizontino U2039%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bandeirante U20Expected goals in this matchNovorizontino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Bandeirante U20

1.10

Novorizontino U20

1.23

Novorizontino U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Bandeirante U20

1.20

Novorizontino U20

1.25

allows per match

Bandeirante U20

1.20

Novorizontino U20

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandeirante U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bandeirante U20 or draw

61%

Bandeirante U20 or Novorizontino U20

72%

Draw or Novorizontino U20

67%

Winning margin

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

13%

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

67%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

30%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

10%

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals

71%

Novorizontino U20 2+ goals

35%

Novorizontino U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandeirante U20 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.20 + Novorizontino U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Novorizontino U20 attack 1.25 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bandeirante U20 scores more

33%

level

28%

Novorizontino U20 scores more

39%

Novorizontino U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Bandeirante U20 and Novorizontino U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LLLLW

U20

WDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff