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Bandari vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Bandari
Bandari
FT
1 – 2
Tusker
Tusker
W. Ochomo 26' (pen)
B. Marita 90'
H. Sempala 65'
1/12/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Mbaraki Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Bandari40%
×Draw28%
Tusker32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandari
1.23
Tusker
1.07

Bandari creates 15% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 143 away

creates per match

Bandari
1.44
Tusker
1.33

allows per match

Bandari
0.81
Tusker
1.01

finishing

Bandari+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandari ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bandari or draw
68%
Bandari or Tusker
72%
Draw or Tusker
60%

Winning margin

Bandari wins by 2+
17%
Tusker wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bandari 1+ goals
71%
Bandari 2+ goals
35%
Bandari 3+ goals
13%
Tusker 1+ goals
66%
Tusker 2+ goals
29%
Tusker 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bandari (draw refunded)
55%
Tusker (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandari at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.81 · 149 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandari attack 1.44 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tusker attack 1.33 + Bandari defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bandari scores more
40%
level
28%
Tusker scores more
32%

Bandari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
W. OchomoPenalty
65'
H. Sempala
90'
B. Marita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandari vs Tusker

Tusker beat Bandari 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 12, 2020.

Goals: W. Ochomo (26' pen), H. Sempala (65'), B. Marita (90').

The match was played at Mbaraki Sports Club in Mombasa.