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Banat Girls W vs Olimpia Cluj W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
0 – 8
Olimpia Cluj W
Olimpia Cluj W
11/7/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 8Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Banat Girls W23%
×Draw18%
Olimpia Cluj W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
1.70
Olimpia Cluj W
2.78

Olimpia Cluj W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 70 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
Olimpia Cluj W
3.27

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
Olimpia Cluj W
1.16

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
40%
Banat Girls W or Olimpia Cluj W
82%
Draw or Olimpia Cluj W
77%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
10%
Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
82%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
51%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
24%
Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals
94%
Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals
76%
Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
28%
Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
23%
level
18%
Olimpia Cluj W scores more
60%

Olimpia Cluj W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Banat Girls W 0–8 Olimpia Cluj W

Olimpia Cluj W beat Banat Girls W 8-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare in Comloșu Mare.