Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bamboutos vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
2 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
2/5/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 20Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bamboutos45%
×Draw31%
Union Douala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.15
Union Douala
0.74

Bamboutos creates 55% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 85 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
76%
Bamboutos or Union Douala
69%
Draw or Union Douala
55%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
20%
Union Douala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
68%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
32%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
11%
Union Douala 1+ goals
52%
Union Douala 2+ goals
17%
Union Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
66%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bamboutos scores more
45%
level
31%
Union Douala scores more
24%

Bamboutos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Bamboutos 2–0 Union Douala

Bamboutos beat Union Douala 2-0 in Elite One on February 5, 2020.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.