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Bamboutos vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
0 – 1
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
11/24/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 9Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bamboutos42%
×Draw30%
Eding Sport28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.17
Eding Sport
0.89

Bamboutos creates 31% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 54 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
72%
Bamboutos or Eding Sport
70%
Draw or Eding Sport
58%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
18%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
69%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
33%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
11%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
59%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
22%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
60%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bamboutos scores more
42%
level
30%
Eding Sport scores more
28%

Bamboutos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bamboutos vs Eding Sport

Eding Sport beat Bamboutos 1-0 in Elite One on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.