Bamber Bridge 0–0 United of Manchester

Bamber Bridge

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

United of Manchester

1/15/2022

League #59 · Northern - 27Sir Tom Finney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bamber Bridge57%

×Draw22%

United of Manchester21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bamber BridgeExpected goals in this matchUnited of Manchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.09

Bamber Bridge

1.93

United of Manchester

1.09

Bamber Bridge creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.86

creates per match

0.89

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bamber Bridge

1.86

United of Manchester

0.89

allows per match

Bamber Bridge

1.29

United of Manchester

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamber Bridge+0.00on par

United of Manchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamber Bridge ↓

United of Manchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bamber Bridge or draw

79%

Bamber Bridge or United of Manchester

78%

Draw or United of Manchester

43%

Winning margin

Bamber Bridge wins by 2+

33%

United of Manchester wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bamber Bridge 1+ goals

85%

Bamber Bridge 2+ goals

57%

Bamber Bridge 3+ goals

30%

United of Manchester 1+ goals

66%

United of Manchester 2+ goals

30%

United of Manchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bamber Bridge (draw refunded)

73%

United of Manchester (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamber Bridge at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

United of Manchester away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamber Bridge attack 1.86 + United of Manchester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

United of Manchester attack 0.89 + Bamber Bridge defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bamber Bridge scores more

57%

level

22%

United of Manchester scores more

21%

Bamber Bridge at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bamber Bridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff