Baltika 1–0 Enisey: Result & Stats | First League

Baltika

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Enisey

10/4/2020

First League · Round 13Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Baltika47%

×Draw28%

Enisey25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.89

Baltika

1.35

Enisey

0.89

Baltika creates 52% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 126 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

0.75

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Enisey

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

75%

Baltika or Enisey

72%

Draw or Enisey

53%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

23%

Enisey wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

74%

Baltika 2+ goals

39%

Baltika 3+ goals

15%

Enisey 1+ goals

59%

Enisey 2+ goals

22%

Enisey 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

66%

Enisey (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.43 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Enisey defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Enisey attack 1.02 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baltika scores more

47%

level

28%

Enisey scores more

25%

Baltika at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff