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Balsicas Atlético vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
9/10/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético32%
×Draw28%
Atlético Pulpileño41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.10
Atlético Pulpileño
1.28

Atlético Pulpileño creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
59%
Balsicas Atlético or Atlético Pulpileño
72%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
68%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
67%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
30%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
32%
level
28%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
41%

Atlético Pulpileño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Atlético Pulpileño

Balsicas Atlético and Atlético Pulpileño drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas in Torre-Pacheco.