Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ballkani vs Prishtina — Superliga 2019

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prishtina
Prishtina
12/17/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Ballkani49%
×Draw25%
Prishtina25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.55
Prishtina
1.03

Ballkani creates 50% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 124 away

creates per match

Ballkani
2.07
Prishtina
1.19

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
Prishtina
1.03

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Prishtina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Prishtina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
75%
Ballkani or Prishtina
75%
Draw or Prishtina
51%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
25%
Prishtina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
79%
Ballkani 2+ goals
46%
Ballkani 3+ goals
20%
Prishtina 1+ goals
64%
Prishtina 2+ goals
28%
Prishtina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
66%
Prishtina (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.88 · 125 matches

Prishtina away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.03 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 2.07 + Prishtina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Prishtina attack 1.19 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ballkani scores more
49%
level
25%
Prishtina scores more
25%

Ballkani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Ballkani 0–0 Prishtina

Ballkani and Prishtina drew 0-0 in Superliga on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit Suharekë in Suva Reka.