Danubio 2–1 Racing Montevideo: Result & Stats

Danubio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Montevideo

J. Alvez 90', 14' (pen)

A. Gorocito 88'

4/19/2014

League #270 · Round 11Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Danubio40%

×Draw28%

Racing Montevideo32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DanubioExpected goals in this matchRacing Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Danubio

1.25

Racing Montevideo

1.08

Danubio creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.50

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Danubio

1.00

Racing Montevideo

1.50

allows per match

Danubio

0.67

Racing Montevideo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Danubio+0.00on par

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Danubio ↓

Racing Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Danubio or draw

68%

Danubio or Racing Montevideo

72%

Draw or Racing Montevideo

60%

Winning margin

Danubio wins by 2+

18%

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Danubio 1+ goals

71%

Danubio 2+ goals

36%

Danubio 3+ goals

13%

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

66%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

29%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Danubio (draw refunded)

56%

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Danubio at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Danubio attack 1.00 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Racing Montevideo attack 1.50 + Danubio defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Danubio scores more

40%

level

28%

Racing Montevideo scores more

32%

Danubio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Danubio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. AlvezPenalty

44'

M. Fernández← D. Malrechauffe

57'

M. Affonso← L. Ezquerra

58'

Matías De los Santos← G. Cotugno

67'

H. Sequeira← J. Zambrana

77'

77'

88'

90'

Danubio

Racing

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

58'▲Matías De los Santos←▼G. Cotugno

67'▲H. Sequeira←▼J. Zambrana

77'▲M. Silvera←▼G. Faber

Danubio substitutes

SantosSequeiraSilveraFornaroliMartiñonesTorgnascioliSantos

44'▲M. Fernández←▼D. Malrechauffe

57'▲M. Affonso←▼L. Ezquerra

77'▲D. Acosta←▼D. Zabala

Racing Montevideo substitutes

FernándezAffonsoAcostaAlonsoMuelaGómezGentilio

Match Recap: Danubio vs Racing Montevideo

Danubio beat Racing Montevideo 2-1 in League #270 on April 19, 2014.

Goals: J. Alvez (14' pen, 90'), A. Gorocito (88').

The match was played at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo in Montevideo.

Danubio vs Racing Montevideo — League #270 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Danubio vs Racing Montevideo