Balkan Botevgrad 3–3 Septemvri Sofia II

Balkan Botevgrad

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Septemvri Sofia II

11/11/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad53%

×Draw23%

Septemvri Sofia II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkan BotevgradExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.17

Balkan Botevgrad

1.86

Septemvri Sofia II

1.17

Balkan Botevgrad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 88 away

1.89

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.89

Septemvri Sofia II

1.19

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.15

Septemvri Sofia II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw

76%

Balkan Botevgrad or Septemvri Sofia II

77%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia II

47%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

30%

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

84%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

55%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

28%

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

69%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

33%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

69%

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

53%

level

23%

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

24%

Balkan Botevgrad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff