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Balestier Khalsa vs Young Lions — Premier League 2019

Balestier Khalsa
Balestier Khalsa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Young Lions
Young Lions
3/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Bishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Balestier Khalsa50%
×Draw20%
Young Lions30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balestier Khalsa
2.41
Young Lions
1.85

Balestier Khalsa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.10
Young Lions
1.10

allows per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.60
Young Lions
2.71

finishing

Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par
Young Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balestier Khalsa ↓

Young Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Balestier Khalsa or draw
70%
Balestier Khalsa or Young Lions
80%
Draw or Young Lions
50%

Winning margin

Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+
31%
Young Lions wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals
91%
Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals
69%
Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals
43%
Young Lions 1+ goals
84%
Young Lions 2+ goals
55%
Young Lions 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)
63%
Young Lions (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balestier Khalsa at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.60 · 82 matches

Young Lions away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.71 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balestier Khalsa attack 2.10 + Young Lions defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

Young Lions attack 1.10 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Balestier Khalsa scores more
50%
level
20%
Young Lions scores more
30%

Balestier Khalsa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Balestier Khalsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Balestier Khalsa 3–1 Young Lions

Balestier Khalsa beat Young Lions 3-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Bishan Stadium in Singapore.