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Balestier Khalsa vs Tampines Rovers — Premier League 2019

Balestier Khalsa
Balestier Khalsa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tampines Rovers
Tampines Rovers
3/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Toa Payoh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Balestier Khalsa29%
×Draw20%
Tampines Rovers51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balestier Khalsa
1.81
Tampines Rovers
2.40

Tampines Rovers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 85 away

creates per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.10
Tampines Rovers
2.20

allows per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.60
Tampines Rovers
1.51

finishing

Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par
Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balestier Khalsa ↓

Tampines Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Balestier Khalsa or draw
49%
Balestier Khalsa or Tampines Rovers
80%
Draw or Tampines Rovers
71%

Winning margin

Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+
15%
Tampines Rovers wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals
84%
Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals
54%
Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals
27%
Tampines Rovers 1+ goals
91%
Tampines Rovers 2+ goals
69%
Tampines Rovers 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)
37%
Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balestier Khalsa at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.60 · 82 matches

Tampines Rovers away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balestier Khalsa attack 2.10 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tampines Rovers attack 2.20 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Balestier Khalsa scores more
29%
level
20%
Tampines Rovers scores more
51%

Tampines Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Balestier Khalsa 1–2 Tampines Rovers

Tampines Rovers beat Balestier Khalsa 2-1 in Premier League on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Toa Payoh Stadium in Singapore.