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Bahia vs Sao Paulo — Serie A 2026

Bahia
Bahia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
11/29/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 36Arena Fonte Nova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Bahia52%
×Draw27%
Sao Paulo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia
1.46
Sao Paulo
0.83

Bahia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bahia
1.38
Sao Paulo
0.85

allows per match

Bahia
0.81
Sao Paulo
1.54

finishing

Bahia+0.62scores more
Sao Paulo-0.02on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

Sao Paulo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bahia or draw
79%
Bahia or Sao Paulo
73%
Draw or Sao Paulo
48%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+
26%
Sao Paulo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals
77%
Bahia 2+ goals
43%
Bahia 3+ goals
18%
Sao Paulo 1+ goals
56%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
20%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)
71%
Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 15 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.38 + Sao Paulo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sao Paulo attack 0.85 + Bahia defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bahia scores more
52%
level
27%
Sao Paulo scores more
21%

Bahia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Bahia 0–1 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo beat Bahia 1-0 in Serie A on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, Bahia.