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Bahia U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Brasileiro U20 A 2026

Bahia U20
Bahia U20
FT
1 – 3
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
9/27/2020Brasileiro U20 ABrasileiro U20 A · 1st Phase - 2Centro Esportivo Praia do Forte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bahia U2037%
×Draw23%
São Paulo U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U20
1.58
São Paulo U20
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bahia U20
1.35
São Paulo U20
1.59

allows per match

Bahia U20
1.69
São Paulo U20
1.80

finishing

Bahia U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bahia U20 or draw
60%
Bahia U20 or São Paulo U20
77%
Draw or São Paulo U20
63%

Winning margin

Bahia U20 wins by 2+
18%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bahia U20 1+ goals
79%
Bahia U20 2+ goals
47%
Bahia U20 3+ goals
21%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
81%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
49%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bahia U20 (draw refunded)
48%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.69 · 55 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U20 attack 1.35 + São Paulo U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

São Paulo U20 attack 1.59 + Bahia U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bahia U20 scores more
37%
level
23%
São Paulo U20 scores more
40%

São Paulo U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U20 A: Bahia U20 1–3 São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat Bahia U20 3-1 in Brasileiro U20 A on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Centro Esportivo Praia do Forte in Mata de São João, Bahia.