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Bahia U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Bahia U17
Bahia U17
Preview
20:00
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
8/25/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 14
42%
Atlético Mineiro U17
model favours
36%22%42%

Atlético Mineiro U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bahia U1736%
×Draw22%
Atlético Mineiro U1742%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia U17
1.78
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bahia U17
1.61
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.86

allows per match

Bahia U17
2.00
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.95

finishing

Bahia U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Bahia U17 or draw
58%
Bahia U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
78%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
64%

Winning margin

Bahia U17 wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bahia U17 1+ goals
83%
Bahia U17 2+ goals
53%
Bahia U17 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
57%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bahia U17 (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia U17 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia U17 attack 1.61 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Bahia U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bahia U17 scores more
36%
level
22%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
42%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bahia U17 score first in only 7% of matches
  • Both teams score in 100% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches
  • 75% of Atlético Mineiro U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (63% and 75% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
DLWLW
U17
DLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bahia U17 face Atlético Mineiro U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Bahia U17 hosting Atlético Mineiro U17. Match starts August 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.