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Bahardar vs Awassa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Bahardar
Bahardar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
12/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Bahardar39%
×Draw29%
Awassa Kenema32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahardar
1.17
Awassa Kenema
1.04

Bahardar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Bahardar
1.12
Awassa Kenema
1.14

allows per match

Bahardar
0.94
Awassa Kenema
1.22

finishing

Bahardar+0.00on par
Awassa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahardar ↓

Awassa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bahardar or draw
68%
Bahardar or Awassa Kenema
71%
Draw or Awassa Kenema
61%

Winning margin

Bahardar wins by 2+
16%
Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bahardar 1+ goals
69%
Bahardar 2+ goals
33%
Bahardar 3+ goals
11%
Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
28%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bahardar (draw refunded)
55%
Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahardar at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Awassa Kenema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahardar attack 1.12 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Awassa Kenema attack 1.14 + Bahardar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bahardar scores more
39%
level
29%
Awassa Kenema scores more
32%

Bahardar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bahardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bahardar vs Awassa Kenema

Bahardar beat Awassa Kenema 2-1 in Premier League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.