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Baglan Dragons vs Afan Lido — League #111 2026

Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Afan Lido
Afan Lido
I. Evans 90'
10/21/2023League #111League #111 · South - 10Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Baglan Dragons39%
×Draw24%
Afan Lido37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baglan Dragons
1.62
Afan Lido
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 33 away

creates per match

Baglan Dragons
1.00
Afan Lido
1.12

allows per match

Baglan Dragons
2.00
Afan Lido
2.24

finishing

Baglan Dragons+0.00on par
Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baglan Dragons ↓

Afan Lido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baglan Dragons or draw
63%
Baglan Dragons or Afan Lido
76%
Draw or Afan Lido
61%

Winning margin

Baglan Dragons wins by 2+
20%
Afan Lido wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baglan Dragons 1+ goals
80%
Baglan Dragons 2+ goals
48%
Baglan Dragons 3+ goals
22%
Afan Lido 1+ goals
79%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
46%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Baglan Dragons (draw refunded)
52%
Afan Lido (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baglan Dragons at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baglan Dragons attack 1.00 + Afan Lido defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.62

Afan Lido attack 1.12 + Baglan Dragons defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baglan Dragons scores more
39%
level
24%
Afan Lido scores more
37%

Baglan Dragons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baglan Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
I. Evans

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Baglan Dragons 0–1 Afan Lido

Afan Lido beat Baglan Dragons 1-0 in League #111 on October 21, 2023.

Goals: I. Evans (90').

The match was played at Evans Bevans Playing Fields Q in Port Talbot.