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Baghdad vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
1/16/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 19Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Baghdad29%
×Draw30%
Al Talaba41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
0.91
Al Talaba
1.13

Al Talaba creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.85
Al Talaba
1.14

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Al Talaba
0.97

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
59%
Baghdad or Al Talaba
70%
Draw or Al Talaba
71%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
10%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
60%
Baghdad 2+ goals
23%
Baghdad 3+ goals
6%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
31%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
42%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.85 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Talaba attack 1.14 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baghdad scores more
29%
level
30%
Al Talaba scores more
41%

Al Talaba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baghdad vs Al Talaba

Al Talaba beat Baghdad 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.