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Baghdad vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2020

Baghdad
Baghdad
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
9/21/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Baghdad34%
×Draw30%
Al Kahrabaa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baghdad
1.05
Al Kahrabaa
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 108 away

creates per match

Baghdad
0.85
Al Kahrabaa
1.03

allows per match

Baghdad
1.12
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw
64%
Baghdad or Al Kahrabaa
70%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
66%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+
13%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals
65%
Baghdad 2+ goals
28%
Baghdad 3+ goals
9%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
66%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
29%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)
49%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.12 · 78 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.85 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.03 + Baghdad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baghdad scores more
34%
level
30%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
36%

Al Kahrabaa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Baghdad 0–2 Al Kahrabaa

Al Kahrabaa beat Baghdad 2-0 in Iraqi League on September 21, 2021.

The match was played at Amanat Baghdad Stadium in Bagdad.