Bad Gleichenberg 3–2 Union Vöcklamarkt

Bad Gleichenberg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Union Vöcklamarkt

10/26/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg56%

×Draw20%

Union Vöcklamarkt24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad GleichenbergExpected goals in this matchUnion Vöcklamarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.44

Bad Gleichenberg

2.25

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.44

Bad Gleichenberg creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 91 away

2.39

creates per match

1.26

1.62

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg

2.39

Union Vöcklamarkt

1.26

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg

1.62

Union Vöcklamarkt

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Union Vöcklamarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Union Vöcklamarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw

76%

Bad Gleichenberg or Union Vöcklamarkt

80%

Draw or Union Vöcklamarkt

44%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

34%

Union Vöcklamarkt wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

89%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

65%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

39%

Union Vöcklamarkt 1+ goals

76%

Union Vöcklamarkt 2+ goals

42%

Union Vöcklamarkt 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

70%

Union Vöcklamarkt (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Union Vöcklamarkt away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Union Vöcklamarkt defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.25

Union Vöcklamarkt attack 1.26 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

56%

level

20%

Union Vöcklamarkt scores more

24%

Bad Gleichenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff