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Bad Gleichenberg vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ried II
Ried II
8/6/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 3Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg56%
×Draw19%
Ried II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.42
Ried II
1.58

Bad Gleichenberg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 91 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Ried II
2.44

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
75%
Bad Gleichenberg or Ried II
81%
Draw or Ried II
44%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
35%
Ried II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
91%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
69%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
43%
Ried II 1+ goals
79%
Ried II 2+ goals
47%
Ried II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
69%
Ried II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ried II attack 1.53 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
56%
level
19%
Ried II scores more
25%

Bad Gleichenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Gleichenberg vs Ried II

Bad Gleichenberg beat Ried II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.