Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bad Gleichenberg vs Allerheiligen — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
9/14/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 8Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg50%
×Draw21%
Allerheiligen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.09
Allerheiligen
1.53

Bad Gleichenberg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Allerheiligen
1.44

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Allerheiligen
1.79

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Allerheiligen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Allerheiligen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
72%
Bad Gleichenberg or Allerheiligen
79%
Draw or Allerheiligen
50%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
29%
Allerheiligen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
88%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
62%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
34%
Allerheiligen 1+ goals
78%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
45%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
64%
Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Allerheiligen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.79 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Allerheiligen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Allerheiligen attack 1.44 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
50%
level
21%
Allerheiligen scores more
28%

Bad Gleichenberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bad Gleichenberg vs Allerheiligen

Bad Gleichenberg and Allerheiligen drew 4-4 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 14, 2018.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena (Bad Gleichenberg).