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B71 vs B68 — 1. Deild 2019

B71
B71
FT
4 – 1
B68
B68
4/27/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 7inni í Dal (Sandur, Sandoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

B7151%
×Draw22%
B6827%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B71
1.95
B68
1.36

B71 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

creates per match

B71
2.41
B68
1.65

allows per match

B71
1.08
B68
1.48

finishing

B71+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B71 ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

B71 or draw
73%
B71 or B68
78%
Draw or B68
49%

Winning margin

B71 wins by 2+
29%
B68 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

B71 1+ goals
86%
B71 2+ goals
58%
B71 3+ goals
31%
B68 1+ goals
74%
B68 2+ goals
39%
B68 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

B71 (draw refunded)
66%
B68 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B71 at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.08 · 96 matches

B68 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B71 attack 2.41 + B68 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.95

B68 attack 1.65 + B71 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

B71 scores more
51%
level
22%
B68 scores more
27%

B71 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "B71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B71 4 – 1 B68

B71 beat B68 4-1 in 1. Deild on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at inni í Dal (Sandur, Sandoy).