B68 0–1 NSI Runavik: Result & Stats

B68

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

NSI Runavik

P. Hentze 61'

5/26/2022

Meistaradeildin · Round 12Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

B6826%

×Draw21%

NSI Runavik52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B68Expected goals in this matchNSI Runavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.08

B68

1.43

NSI Runavik

2.08

NSI Runavik creates 45% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 89 away

1.21

creates per match

2.21

1.96

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

B68

1.21

NSI Runavik

2.21

allows per match

B68

1.96

NSI Runavik

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B68+0.00on par

NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

NSI Runavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

B68 or draw

48%

B68 or NSI Runavik

79%

Draw or NSI Runavik

74%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+

12%

NSI Runavik wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals

76%

B68 2+ goals

42%

B68 3+ goals

17%

NSI Runavik 1+ goals

87%

NSI Runavik 2+ goals

61%

NSI Runavik 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)

34%

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

NSI Runavik away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 1.21 + NSI Runavik defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

NSI Runavik attack 2.21 + B68 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

B68 scores more

26%

level

21%

NSI Runavik scores more

52%

NSI Runavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NSI Runavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

P. Hentze

64'

E. Clementsen← F. Petersen

72'

N. Jensen← T. Thomsen

77'

M. Mortensen

79'

Albert Róin Johannesen← O. Højgaard

79'

B. Nolsøe← M. Mortensen

80'

S. Løkin← M. Samba

81'

A. Liu

84'

B. Egilsson← P. Skipanes

87'

E. Trondargjogv

90+2'

B68

NSI

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. á Borg

64'▲E. Clementsen←▼F. Petersen

72'▲N. Jensen←▼T. Thomsen

80'▲S. Løkin←▼M. Samba

B68 substitutes

ClementsenJensenLøkinClementsenAntónLindholm

Manager: P. Jacobsen

79'▲Albert Róin Johannesen←▼O. Højgaard

79'▲B. Nolsøe←▼M. Mortensen

84'▲B. Egilsson←▼P. Skipanes

NSI Runavik substitutes

JohannesenNolsøeEgilssonHøjJohannesenDanielsenMortensen