B68 1–0 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

B68

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HB Torshavn

6/28/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 15Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

B6820%

×Draw21%

HB Torshavn59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B68Expected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.07

B68

1.13

HB Torshavn

2.07

HB Torshavn creates 83% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 103 away

1.21

creates per match

2.18

1.96

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

B68

1.21

HB Torshavn

2.18

allows per match

B68

1.96

HB Torshavn

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B68+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

B68 or draw

41%

B68 or HB Torshavn

79%

Draw or HB Torshavn

80%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+

8%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals

68%

B68 2+ goals

31%

B68 3+ goals

11%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

87%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

61%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)

26%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 1.21 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + B68 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

B68 scores more

20%

level

21%

HB Torshavn scores more

59%

HB Torshavn at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff